Using multi-temporal remote sensing data to quantify forest cover change in Dien Bien Dong district, Dien Bien province during 1991-2017
Economic & Policies
USING NET PRESENT VALUE METHOD IN ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ANALYSIS FOR FOREST PLANTATION: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS
Nguyen Quang Ha
Bac Giang Agriculture and Forestry University
SUMMARY
This paper discussed limitations in perception and application of Net Present Value (NPV) method in economic
and financial analysis for forest plantation. Starting point of the discussion is a common fact in forest plantation
that, while financial efficiency assessments based on NPV criterion of the forest plantation projects are
satisfactory, most of the forestry state owned enterprises and other forestry units are facing huge financial
difficulties. The author pointed out that, the reasons for that contradiction are significant errors in NPV method’s
application. They are: Ad hoc selection of forest planting rotations; ignorance of risk premium; irrelevant
treatment of inflation; and overuse of NPV per hectare. Consequently, NPV method has been failed to give a
correct criterion for economic and financial assessment in forest plantation. Since the errors are right placed in
teaching materials and legal documents, negative impacts caused by misusing of the method are long lasted and
exaggerated. Based on the problems analysis, the author proposed the solutions for each issue: simultaneously
solving problems of planted forest rotation period and NPV identification; including of risk premium in discount
rate; consistently handling of inflation factor and price’s type in NPV calculation; and using of an appropriate set
of criteria in economic and financial assessment. In the author point of view, the proposed solutions are rather
simple and ready to use, the most concern is laid in a full awareness towards the existence of the problems and
an immediate responses by people engaged in related academic and practical fields.
Keywords: Discount rate, economic efficiency, forest plantation, net present value.
very low efficiency in forest plantation is found
in most state owned enterprises and other
forestry units (NASC, 2015).
I. INTRODUCTION
Net Present Value (NPV) is considered as
the most appropriate criterion and widespead
use in economic efficiency analysis for long
term investment in general and forest plantation
in particular. Instruction and guide for
computing and using the criterion can be found
in many publications, for practical and
academic purposes.
That contradiction in practice implies that,
with the current way of using NPV method for
economic and financial analysis, NPV would be
a mistaken criterion for financial efficiency in
forest plantation.
This paper aimed to examine limitations in
NPV method used for economicefficiency
assessment by discussing the selection and
interpretation of NPV’s components and
calculation method. It turns out that there exist
significant errors in identification and
application of the planted forest rotation, the
way to handle risk, inflation and overuse of per
hectare NPV. Based on the problems
identification and analysis, the paper suggests
necessary amendments to improve NPV
method in economic and financial assessment.
Although the solutions are targeted to forest
With this common use, it is natural to expect
an accurate method and appropriate application
of the criterion in theory and practice.
However, there is a clear contradiction in
financial efficiency assessment and reality of
financial status of the forest plantation units.
Looking at the documents, papers reported
financial efficiency assessment in forest
plantation projects throughout the country, we
hardly see any case of low financial efficiency
based on NPV criterion1. At the same time,
1 See, for example Hoang Lien Son (2016)
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plantation sector, some of the proposed
amendments can be applied for other fields of
investment analysis.
assumption on rotation period is the common
practice or experience gained from some
“reliable” sources. However, there is no sound
ground for that practice: optimal period (that is,
the best time to harvest the planted forest) is an
important factor andshould be treated as
endogenous variable in economic efficiency
analysis. To see that, we look at the classical
problem of optimal period identification in
forestry economics:
II. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
As a discussion paper, the main method used
in this study is critical analysis without
mentioning particular addresses. Nevertheless,
some data or publications are still appeared in
the paper, and they should be considered as for
illustrative purpose only.
For the discussing NPV method, in this
paper, we follow the common formula for NPV
The most well-known criterion for solving
problem of optimal period of planted forest
harvesting is maximization of the discounted
net revenue from an infinite rotations – the
Faustmann - Pressler – Ohlin model (Lofgren,
calculation in forest plantation project analysis:
ꢋ
ꢄ ꢆꢇ
ꢅ
ꢅ
ꢀꢁꢂ = ꢃ
(1)
ꢅ
(ꢈꢉꢊ)
ꢌꢍꢎ
Where:
1983):
ꢓ
Bt, Ct: Revenue and costs occur at year t
throughout the forest plantation period;
N: Rotation period; that is, the length of time
to harvest planted forest, in year.
( )
∑
ꢏꢐꢑ ꢂ ꢒ =
ꢀꢁꢂ (2)
ꢌ
ꢌꢍꢎ
Where:
V(T): Total net revenue from an infinite
rotations;
r: Discount rate, normally referred as normal
interest rate;
T: Optimal period (this is N in formula for
NPV calculation);
The most widespread use of NPV is as a
criterion for economic and financial assessment
in the feasibility analysis, to make decision on
whether or not to undertake a forest plantation
project. That is, the NPV analysis is carried out
before actual project activities taken place.The
discussion in this paper on identifying and
using NPV criterion for economic and financial
efficiency analysis is in that context.
NPVt: Net Present Value obtained from
rotation period t.
That is, in solving this problem, NPV(t) is a
function of optimal period T, T is allowed to be
varied to get maximized total discounted NPVs
from all rotations of planting forest. In other
words, it is NPV to be used for identifying
rotation, rather than taking the planted forest
rotation as known to compute NPV.
III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Therefore, NPV and rotation period are
3.1 Making assumption on forest plantation
rotation
mutually
dependent
and
should
be
simultaneously identified within framework of
solving the optimal period problem. Following
are some methods can be used:
The first problem in NPV use comes from
the adhocassumption on the planted forest
rotation.
- Allowing forest planting rotations (T) to be
changed in a practical range (such as 5, 7, 9, 11
years), calculating NPV(T) accordingly, then
select the best T by using the criterion of
maximizing total NPV from all rotations in land
To compute NPV in the stage of project
proposal, the length of the planted forest
rotation (N) is commonly assumed to be known
parameter. The most popular way to make
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JOURNAL OF FORESTRY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY NO. 5 - 2017
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allocation period (for the details, see Nguyen
Quang Ha and Duong Thi Thanh Tan, 2016).
- Solving optimal period problem by using
multi-objective optimization technique. This is
a rather technically complicated. However, with
increasing availability of specialized software,
such as the free online MINBUS software, the
method becomes much more practically
applicable (see Nguyen Quang Ha, 2017 for
details).
of money, it seems straight forward to
interpreter as “interest rate”. Because of this
interpretation, the common way to select
discount rate for a specific forest plantation
project is the average of the normal borrowing
interest rate from the funding sources2. Once
normal interest rate is chosen, the discount rate
consist of two components:
i) Real interest rate, and
ii) Inflation rate.
3.2. Handling the risks
This application of discount rate is not
appropriate for commercial forest plantation, a
sector that heavily affected by social, natural
and economic factors such as encroachment,
fire, diseases… By its nature, commercial
forest plantation alwaysassociates with non-
diversifiable risks. Discount rate, interpreting as
investor’s expected returns to make them
indifferent in receiving an amount of money
today and in the future, should include
compensation for non-diversifiable risk.
Therefore, adding risk premium to discount rate
is the basic way to handle the risk in NPV
method.
The way to deal with risks in NPV methods
has been clearly shown in many publications,
for example Warren (1982), Hardacer et al
(2004)... However, in Vietnam, not much
attention has been paid on this issue, both in
theoretical and practical works.
In economic and financial analysis using
NPV method in Vietnam, the only treatment of
risks is undertaking sensitivity analysis. In
thesensitivity analysis, NPV is calculated with
allowing changesin some main factors such as
input and output prices, productivity, and
interest rate. The sensitivity analysis shows the
elements for which NPV is most sensitive and
allows the decision makers to examine the
likely effects of the worst, best, and most likely
assumptions concerning the outcome of a
project. Clearly, thoseinformation is useful for
assessment of the project feasibility and hence,
sensitivity analysis is necessary. However, it is
not enough to handle the risk problem in
economic and financial assessment in forest
plantation. The reason is that, while sensitivity
analysis allows to compare possible NPVs with
that of base case, but with current method of
NPV calculating, the value of base case’s NPV
is not accurate, resulted from an error in
interpretation of discount rate.
Although there has been no risk surveys
undertaken by any Vietnamese agencies so far,
a very good preference of risk premium can be
found in Fernandez et al (2014). Their paper
reports the result of the market risk premium
survey, covering 88 countries, periodically
undertaken every two years. In this report,
market risk premium used for Vietnam is
reported as 10.3, shown in Table 01. In our
point of view, this could be a reliable source to
use for risk premium component in discount
rate identification.
2 For example, discount rate used for forest pricing, in
accordant to the Government Decrees 48/2007/ND-CP is
average normal borrowing interest rate applied by local
branches ofcommercial banks operating in the forest
site’s area.
Since discount rate has the root of time value
JOURNAL OF FORESTRY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY NO. 5 - 2017
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Table 01. Market risk premium (MRP) used for selected countries in 2014
Unit: percent
Country
MRP
Country
MRP
Philippines
8.1
United State
5.4
Thailand
Indonesia
China
8.0
7.9
Spain
Germany
UK
6.2
5.4
5.1
5.6
5.3
8.1
Pakistan
Vietnam
11.1
10.3
Italy
Japan
Source: Pablo Fernandez, Javier Aguirreamalloa and Luis Corres (2014) “Market Risk Premium used in 88
countries in 2014: a survey with 8,228 answers”, IESE Business School, June 20, 2014.
Correcting for the above error in handling
inflation is straight forward: for discounting
future cash flows, if the cash flow is calculated
at fixed price, inflation rate component must be
excluded from discount rate; for compounding
past cash flows calculated in actual price,
inflation rate should be included.
3.3. Handling inflation
The interpretation and identification of
discount rate as normal interest rate cause
another error with regard to handling inflation
in many applied NPV method in practice.
Infeasibility analysis offorest plantation
projects, it is convenient to use price level at
present time (that is, the price at the time
undertaking the analysis) and normal interest
rate is used both for discounting future cash
flows and compounding the past cash flow (if
any). As inflation rate is included in normal
interest rate, discounting future cash flows at
fixed price is a double exclusion of inflation
and clearly, is not correct. With regard to the
past cash flows (that is, in the case there are
some costs incurred or benefits received before
the time undertaking analysis), since those cash
flows are often calculated by using actual price,
the inclusion of inflation rate in discount rate is
appropriate. Nevertheless, the use of a same
rate for discounting future cash flow at fixed
price and compounding past cash flow at actual
price is not consistent and resulted in an
inaccurate time value of money.
Another common error related to inflation
handling in NPV method is that, because of
using actual normal interest rate at the time
undertaking project analysis, because of the
fluctuation in inflation rate, the output of NPV
calculation for the same forest plantation
project would significantly be varied with the
time at which the analysis job taken place.
Clearly, that NPV output would provide a
wrong evaluation of economic and financial
efficiency of a long rotation forest plantation
project.
In a country with highly unstable in inflation
rate like Vietnam, where in last fifteen years,
inflation rate hasranged from less than 1% to
above 23%, as shown in Table 02, the problem
becomes much more serious.
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Table 02. Real interest rate, Inflation rate in Vietnam, 2001 – 2015
Unit: percent
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average
Real interest rate
6.57
Inflation rate
-0.43
3.83
3.22
7.76
8.28
7.39
8.30
23.12
7.05
8.86
18.68
9.09
6.59
4.09
0.88
7.78
3.93
2.42
0.45
1.67
2.40
1.41
-5.62
3.63
0.95
-3.55
2.29
5.36
4.83
7.32
2.27
Source: World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/country/vietnam)
Our suggestion for solving the problem is,
when inclusion of inflation rate in discount rate
is needed (for example, for compounding past
cash flows), the inflation should be calculated
in a long run basis. That is, inflation rate should
be computed as the average value of a long
period, rather than using actual inflation rate at
the time undertaking the project analysis.
financial efficiency. There is nothing wrong,
except for the fact that, if total NPV (that is, the
scale of the project) is not put in consideration,
it would lead to the phenomenon that, while
forest plantations is assessed to be highly
financial efficient, the financial status of the
enterprise is not so satisfactory. This is the case
of most state owned forestry enterprises.
Because of capital constraints, their forest
planting scale is small. Consequently, total
revenue and total profits are small, facing huge
difficulties while all NPV assessments give a
good picture of financial efficiency to forest
plantation. Table 03 below is an illustration of
that inconsistency, the data is withdrawn form a
survey on State Owned Forestry Enterprises
(SOFE) in Bac Giang province.
3.4 The use of NPV per hectare
The last matter in using NPV criterion does
not relate to calculation technique or procedure
rather, it is about the way we look at NPV
outcome. Since most data for NPV calculation
is provided in per hectare norms, it is very
common in practice that, NPV per hectare is
computed and considered as the most
important, even the only criterion for assessing
JOURNAL OF FORESTRY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY NO. 5 - 2017
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Table 03. Performance of four SOFEs in Bac Giang provice, the year 2015
Unit: thousand VND
No
1
Items
Luc Nam
3,546.76
2,982.46
3,380.62
166.14
157.33
27,156.10
3,275.54
2,610.33
4.44
Luc Ngan Yen The
Mai Son
Avarage
7,273.13
6,936.10
6,928.75
344.39
Total revenue
8,266.06
8,138.24
7,496.60
769.46
14,792.30 2,487.41
14,578.93 2,044.75
14,410.34 2,427.43
2
Revenue from forest plantation
Total costs
3
4
Before tax profits
381.96
313.81
59.98
47.29
5
After tax profits
662.91
295.34
6
Total Assets (capital)
Of which: Ower’s assets (Equity)
Planted Forest area
10,763.27 10,433.69 11,347.17 14,925.06
6,906.21
2,949.20
8.02
2,368.57
1,997.27
2.12
1,901.97
809.40
1.90
3,613.07
2,091.55
4.06
7
8
9
Profits/Revenue percentage (%)
Return on Asset –ROA (%)
0.58
6.16
3.01
0.42
1.98
10 Return on Equity – ROE (%)
11 Revenue per hectare
4.80
9.60
13.25
7.30
2.49
8.17
1.14
2.76
2.53
3.32
12 NPV per hectare (at r = 11%)
2,138.00
17,450.00 14,365.00
n/a
11,317.67
Source: Pham Thanh Le et al (2016)
It is clear from Table 03 that, while NPV per
hectare is positive and relatively big magnitude,
indicating a good financially feasibility of
forest plantation, all other criteria show a very
weak financial status of the enterprises.
should be put on total project NPV, rather than
only NPV per hectare. Also, for the case of
production unit like enterprises, for which
commercial forest plantation is the main
sources of annual income, the annual revenue
and profits is equally important, not only
discounted value of a specific project, in
financial feasibility analysis.
Apart from small scale, the conflict pictures
of financial efficiency in forestry state owned
enterprises measured by NPV per hectare and
total annual profits are caused also by another
factor: not all management costs are fully
accounted in NPV calculation sheet, whereas
those costs are of significant amount.
Management costs in enterprises are relatively
big, because of large and complex forest
planting sites and complexities in production
organization.
IV. CONCLUSION
NPV can be considered as of the most
popular criterion used in economic and
financial analysis for forest plantation.
However, its terminology and methodology has
been misinterpreted both in academic and
practical context. Adhoc selection of forest
planting rotations, ignorance of risk premium,
irrelevant treatment of inflation, and overuse of
NPV per hectare are found to be not trivial. In
our point of view, with those problems in its
application, the method have been failed to
provide sound norms for decision making. The
The recommended solution with regard to
this problem is that, a better data should be
collected for NPV calculation, in particular,
indirect costs need to be fully projected. In
financial feasibility analysis, more attention
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JOURNAL OF FORESTRY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY NO. 5 - 2017
Economic & Policies
negative impacts of misusing the method is
long lasted and exaggerated as the errors are in
place in teaching materials and legal
documents. Correction for those errors,
therefore, is really needed. Our solutions for
each problem are not complicated, and ready to
use. We strongly recommend a full awareness
towards the existence of the problems and an
immediate correction.
5. Lofgren, K.G (1983), The Fraustmann – Ohlin
theorem: a history note, History of Political Economy 15
(2) pp 261-264
6. NASC – National Assembly Standing Committee
(2015). “Monitoring report on implementation of land
use policies in state owned agriculture and forestry
enterprises in the 2004-2014 period”. Report 958/BC-
UBTVQH13 dated 16/10/2015.
7. Nguyen Quang Ha (2017) “Applying Multi-
objective optimization problem in identification of forest
optimal rotation period”. Vietnam Journal of Agriculture
and Rural Development, No 315-2017, pp104-112
8. Nguyen Quang Ha and Duong Thi Thanh Tan
(2016). “Identification of the forest optimal rotation
period”. Journal ofEconomic Studies, Vietnam Academy
of Social Science, No 7, pp 41-47.
REFERENCES
1. Fernandez,P.et al. (2014). Market Risk Premium
used in 88 countries in 2014: a survey with 8,228 answer.
Working Paper, IESE Business School, University of
Nevarra, Spain.
2. Government of Vietnam (2007). “Decree on the
principles and methods for forest pricing”. Decree
48/2007-NĐ-CP dated 28/3/2007.
9. Pham Thanh Le (2016). “Research on the
performance of State Owned Forest Enterprises in Bac
Giang Province”. Final Report, Bac Giang Agriculture
and Forestry University.
3. Hardacer,J.B.et al (2004). Coping with Risk in
Agriculture. CABI Publishing, pp 234-244.
4. Hoang Lien Son (2016). “Research on the
integration models based value chain in planted forest
products”. Final Report, Vietnamese Academy of Forest
Science.
10. Warren, M.F. (1982). Financial Management for
Farmers, the basic Techniques of “Money Farming”.
Third Edition, Stanly Thorns.
SỬ DỤNG NPV TRONG ĐÁNH GIÁ HIỆU QUẢ KINH TẾ TRỒNG RỪNG:
MỘT SỐ BẤT CẬP VÀ HƯỚNG GIẢI QUYẾT
Nguyễn Quang Hà
Trường Đại học Nông Lâm Bắc Giang
TÓM TẮT
Bài viết này thảo luận những hạn chế trong nhận thức và ứng dụng phương pháp NPV trong phân tích hiệu quả
kinh tế trồng rừng. Xuất phát điểm của bài thảo luận là một thực tế khá phổ biến: trong khi các kết quả đánh giá
hiệu quả tài chính dựa trên tiêu chí NPV của các dự án trông rừng rất khả quan, thì hầu hết các doanh nghiệp lâm
nghiệp nhà nước và các đơn vị trồng rừng khác lại đang lâm vào tình cảnh tài chính hết sức khó khăn. Tác giả
bài báo chỉ ra rằng, lý do của mâu thuẫn đó là các sai sót đáng kể trong ứng dụng phương pháp NPV. Các sai sót
đó là: lựa chọn chu kỳ trồng rừng thiếu căn cứ, bỏ qua yếu tố rủi ro, xử lý không hợp lý yếu tố lạm phát, và sử
dụng quá mức chỉ tiêu NPV trên một hecta. Do những sai sót đó, phương pháp NPV đã không đưa ra được một
tiêu chí đúng cho đánh giá hiệu quả kinh tế và hiệu quả tài chính của trồng rừng. Do các sai sót đó nằm ngay
trong các tài liệu giảng dạy và các văn bàn pháp quy, nên các hệ lụy của việc dùng sai phương pháp là lâu dài và
ngày càng nghiêm trọng. Dựa vào kết quả phân tích, tác giả đề xuất các giải pháp cho từng vấn đề: phương pháp
xác định chu kỳ trồng rừng và xác định NPV một cách đồng thời, đưa phần bù đắp rủi ro vào tỷ lệ chiết khấu, xử
lý thống nhất yếu tố lạm phát và loại giá cả sử dụng trong tính toán NPV, và sử dụng tổng hợp các tiêu chí trong
đánh giá hiệu quả kinh tế và hiệu quả tài chính. Theo tác giả bài báo, các giải pháp đề xuất là khá đơn giản, có
thể sử dụng được ngay, nên vấn đề đáng quan tâm là ở nhận thức về sự tồn tại của các vấn đề và các phản ứng
khẩn trương của những người làm việc trong các lĩnh vực liên quan, cả về học thuật và thực tiễn.
Từ khóa: Giá trị hiện tại ròng, hiệu quả kinh tế, trồng rừng, tỷ lệ chiết khấu.
Received
Revised
Accepted
: 06/9/2017
: 02/10/2017
: 13/10/2017
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