Vietnamese tea exporting and forecasting to 2030
ISSN 2588-1299
VJAS 2020; 3(2): 636-646
Vietnam Journal
of Agricultural
Sciences
Vietnamese Tea Exporting and Forecasting
to 2030
To The Nguyen1,2, Nguyen Anh Tuan2 & Le Phuong Thao1
1Faculty of Economics and Rural Development, Vietnam National University of Agriculture,
Hanoi 131000, Vietnam
2Faculty of Political Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 122000, Vietnam
Abstract
This study aimed to determine the factors influencing Vietnamese tea
export quantities, namely, the internal factors of national tea
production, productivity, and cultivated areas, and the external
factors of export price and world tea export quantity (excluding
Vietnam). We employed a time-series linear model to estimate the
magnitude as well as the sign of the aforementioned factors on
Vietnam’s tea export quantity and two Box-Cox transformations
called a simple back-transformed forecast and a bias-adjustment to
forecast the growth rate of the Vietnamese tea export quantity until
2030. The results suggested that except for the total domestic tea
production, all the proposed factors significantly affected the
Vietnamese tea export quantity. The tea export quantity of other
nations around the world had a significantly negative impact on
Vietnamese tea that led to Vietnam’s tea exports dropping by 34 tons
on average since the other countries exported 1,000 tons of tea. The
forecasted outcome suggested an upward trend of Vietnamese tea
exports up to 2030. In order to sustainably develop Vietnam’s tea
industry, we recommend that the government should take supportive
actions such as investing in in-depth tea processing to improve
Vietnam’s tea export quality, focusing on post-harvest activities,
investing in organic or high-value tea rather than conventional tea,
continuing to accumulate land to support the growth of cultivated
tea areas, and maintaining high productivity by using hybrid seeds.
Keywords
Tea export, Vietnam, forecast
Received: July 3, 2020
Accepted: August 20, 2020
Introduction
Correspondence to
Coffee, tea, and pepper are the three main industrial crops of
Vietnam that have significantly contributed to Vietnam’s GDP after
Doi Moi (Tuan, 2019). Recently, tea has become an important crop
because it offers certain advantages, in particular, it may help to fight
against erosion and runoff in the mountains. It also helps to further
ORCID
To The Nguyen
255X
636
Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences
To The Nguyen et al. (2020)
combat poverty in rural regions because it can
bring daily income for farmers. According to
Vitas (2012), Vietnam had approximately 400
thousand tea producers almost a decade ago,
mostly concentrated in major producing regions
such as the North Mountain (about 60%) and the
Central Highlands (about 20%). Furthermore, the
tea sector in Vietnam is occupied by six million
rural workers. However, the size of average tea
production remains relatively small, about 70%
of households grow tea on an area of less than 0.2
hectares.
from 1990 to 2010, Vietnam witnessed an
increase in tea production in general. The
quantity of tea production consequently
increased by about 9.05 tons at the same time. In
1990, the total tea production was about 32
thousand tons; meanwhile, it reached about 216
thousand tons in 2012 (Vitas, 2012). Notably,
this production was distributed between small
farmers (70%) and large public agricultural
institutions (30%). In a GSO report (2019), the
total tea production of Vietnam continued to
grow annually up to 994.2 thousand tons in 2018
with a cultivation area of 108.3 thousand ha.
Notably, tea production is generally present
in the six regions of Vietnam, namely the
Northwest, Northeast, North Mountain, North
Central, Central Highlands, and Central Coast.
Tea production is concentrated in such provinces
as Phu Tho, Thai Nguyen, Yen Bai, Lam Dong,
and Gia Lai, among others. The North Mountain
region includes some provinces such as Phu Tho,
Thai Nguyen, and Yen Bai. This region accounts
for about 60% of the total area of tea plantations
in Vietnam. Meanwhile, the Central Highlands
region includes Lam Dong and Gia Lai. This
region represents more than 20% of the total tea
area in Vietnam (Table 1).
Petrakis et al. (2015) argued that the global
economic development had slowed down since
the Great Recession in 2008, followed by the
unstable economic development that affected
fluctuations in the quantities of tea exports. GSO
(2019) reported that Vietnam’s exported tea
quantity witnessed a downfall in the period of
2013-2016; meanwhile, the aforementioned tea
production and cultivation areas kept growing. In
addition, the global tea sector witnessed an
increase in tea export quantity in this period
(FAO, 2018). The situation raised three research
objectives. Initially, an overview of Vietnam tea
was required as a systematical report to fully
capture the overall picture of Vietnam’s tea
industry development after Doi Moi. Secondly,
what were the determinants of tea export
quantity, namely the total tea production, tea
production areas, tea productivity, and tea price,
that empirically affected the reduction of
Vietnam’s tea export quantity? Thirdly,
predictions about tea export quantities in the
In detail, the production of tea in Vietnam
has increased significantly since the 90s, mainly
due to the expansion of tea production areas and
the growth of tea productivity. In the year 1990,
tea in Vietnam was grown on about 44 thousand
hectares. However, this area increased by 2.5
times in 2012. During the period from 1990 to
2010, the amount of land used for growing tea
increased by 4.46%. Similarly, during the period
Table 1. Distribution of tea area in Vietnam (%)
Year
Region
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2018
North Mountain
Central Highlands
Northwest
57.98
23.78
7.27
7.25
2.32
1.40
58.21
22.62
7.47
7.93
2.50
1.27
58.14
22.07
7.68
7.29
2.57
2.25
57.13
21.41
9.25
8.06
1.98
2.17
56.99
20.83
9.75
8.08
2.24
2.11
56.87
20.84
9.72
8.17
2.32
2.08
57.05
21.07
9.54
8.02
2.27
2.05
81.94
12.56
13.58
11.22
5.06
North Central
Northeast
Central Coast
6.01
Source: GSO (2019) and our calculations
637
Vietnamese tea exporting and forecasting to 2030
coming years should be estimated to provide an
outlook for policymakers as well as tea farmers
to help them decide whether to focus on tea
exports or the domestic market.
total tea production, tea production area, tea
productivity, and tea export price.
The time-series linear regression was used to
estimate the impact of tea export quantity
determinants such as the total domestic
production, tea production areas, tea
productivity, and tea export price, and was
indicated as a general form provided in the
studies of Serletis (1992), Uk Polo (1994), and
Amirkhalkhali & Dar (1995):
Our analysis used a regression model to
gather all the potential determinants influencing
Vietnam’s tea export quantity as the regression
input, namely tea production, tea production
areas, tea productivity, and tea price (Kingu,
2016), and world tea output (Miano, 2010).
Accordingly,
a
forecasting function was
퐸푥푝표푟푡푡 = 훼1푡
+
훽1푡푃푟표푑푡 + 훽2푡퐴푟푒푎푡 +
employed to estimate the quantity of tea exports
with Box-Cox transformations to correct the bias
caused when using time-series data. This gave
median forecasts on the original scale.
훽3푡푃푟표푑푢푐푡푖푣푖푡푦푡 + 훽4푡푃푟푖푐푒푡 + 훽5푡푊푝푟표푑푡 휀푡
(1)
where Exportt is the dependent variable
which was the quantity of Vietnam’s tea exports,
the independent variables included Prodt, Areat,
Productivityt, Pricet,and Wprodt, and finally εt is
the error term. Prodt stands for total tea domestic
production at time t. Similarly, Areat,
Productivityt, and Pricet are the total planted
areas, productivity, and price of Vietnamese tea
at time t, respectively. Lastly, Wprodt is the
world total tea production with Vietnam
excluded.
Methodology
Data collection
Our study employed secondary data to
gather
a
sufficient amount of required
information to input into our models as well as
our predicted tea export quantity for the next 10
years. The secondary data were sourced from the
annual reports of FAO about Vietnam’s tea
export quantity, total domestic production
quantity, and total production areas, total world
production, and lastly, the export price for
Vietnamese tea. We also sought and gathered
data from the Vietnam General Statistics Office
related to tea cultivation land area in the whole
territory up to 2018. The data range was from
1961 up to 2018 because having time-series data
containing 58 years might increase the reliability
of our results. The data we collected were based
on our research concerns in the previous section
that principally contained information of the tea
production situation of Vietnam for 58 years
such as the total planted area, total output, total
productivity, tea price, and total world tea-
producing quantity.
To our forecast function, we used the Box-
Cox transformation (back-transform). If the data
show variation that increases or decreases with
the level of the series, then a transformation can
be useful. For example,
a
logarithmic
transformation is often useful. If we denote the
original observations as Export1,..,Export58 and
the transformed observations as w1,..,w58 we can
calculate the following formula: w1,..,58
=
log(Export1,..,58). One useful feature of log
transformations is that they constrain the
forecasts to stay positive on the original scale. A
useful family of transformations that includes
both logarithms and power transformations is the
family of Box-Cox transformations, which
depend on the parameter λ and are defined as
follows:
Data analysis
(2)
The descriptive statistical method was used
for the analyses to synthesize the mean values of
the employed variables which are illustrated in
Table 5 representing the characteristics of the
where t runs from 1 to 58. However, one
issue with using mathematical transformations
such as Box-Cox transformations is that the
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638
To The Nguyen et al. (2020)
back-transformed point forecast will not be the
mean of the forecast distribution. In fact, it will
usually be the median of the forecast distribution
(assuming that the distribution on the
transformed space is symmetric). For many
purposes, this is acceptable, but occasionally the
mean forecast is required. For example, you may
wish to add up sales forecasts from various
regions to form a forecast for the whole country.
But medians do not add up, whereas means do.
The difference between the simple back-
transformed forecast and the mean given by bias-
adjustment is called the bias. When we use the
mean, rather than the median, our analysis
estimates for the point forecasts have been bias-
adjusted.
productivity, for instance, the productivity of the
traditional tea variety Trung-Du is about 4 tons
per hectare, and the productivity of the other old
tea variety, PH1, has about 6.5 tons per hectare
(Cuong, 2006). Meanwhile, in other regions, tea
producers began growing new varieties of tea
that have higher productivity, such as in Son La
where the average productivity reached 12 tons
per hectare (Tran et al., 2004). According to
Saigenji & Zeller (2009), there is also a big
difference between the productivity of small
farmers and big farmers, or non-contract and
contract farmers (3.3 and 9.6 tons per hectare,
respectively).
In addition, approximately 70% of the tea
produced in Vietnam was exported. In particular,
tea is exported through three main ways: (i) state
enterprises; (ii) joint ventures and foreign
companies; and (iii) private companies. Notably,
about 98% of tea exports are in the form of raw
materials. This explains why tea exporters do not
have a high added value. Regarding the exported
tea, Vietnamese tea is exported to more than one
hundred countries around the world, although
the tea exports are focused mainly on such
countries as Pakistan, Russia, Taiwan, Iraq,
China, and India.
Results and Discussion
Overview of tea production and exports in
Vietnam
During the period from 2005 to 2012, tea
productivity increased by about 4.73% per year.
However, as can be seen in Table 2, the tea
export quantity of Vietnam tremendously
decreased from 2013 to 2016 (3.12%), and then
quickly boosted from 2017 to 2018 (4.56%),
which signifies a good sign that the tea industry
of Vietnam was able to quickly adapt to changes.
According to Table 3, Taiwan and Pakistan
were the two largest importers of Vietnamese tea,
which accounted for roughly 35% of the total
quantity of tea exported in the period of 2000 to
2018. Russia was the third-largest importer of
Vietnamese tea with an export value reaching
12.88 million dollars and holding about 10% of
the market share of Vietnam’s tea exports.
Moreover, the growth rate of the export value
increased by 21% per year. Iraq was also one of
the largest importers of Vietnamese tea and held
around 8% of the market share of Vietnam’s tea
exports. The average tea export value reached
Furthermore, the productivity of tea depends
on the tea varieties, farming techniques, and
surface and environmental conditions specific to
the geographical position of the plantations.
There are many varieties of tea in Vietnam such
as Bat Tien, LDP1, TRI 777, Trung-Du, PH1,
and PH3, among others. However, some old
varieties of tea such as Trung-Du and PH1 still
make up the majority, and hence, the strategy of
Vietnam is to gradually replace these old
varieties. In general, old varieties of tea bring low
Table 2. The growth of tea production in Vietnam (1990-2018) (%)
Periods
1990-1997
1998-2004
2005-2012
2013-2016
2017-2018
Average
Surface Area
Productivity
Production
6.26
1.98
8.36
5.54
7.32
2.45
4.73
7.29
2.34
3.12
5.12
4.01
4.56
6.14
4.46
4.39
9.05
13.26
Source: FAOSTAT (2018) and our calculations.
639
Vietnamese tea exporting and forecasting to 2030
10.42 million dollars. Nevertheless, the growth
rate of the export value decreased by 23% per
year. Similarly, China was also a vital tea market
for Vietnam. The average export value of tea
reached around 6 million dollars. Although it
held just 7.8% of the market share of Vietnamese
tea exports, the growth rate of the export value
increased significantly. It increased on average
42% per year in recent years. Besides, the growth
rate of the tea export value in India decreased by
6% per year.
in recent years the growth rate of the tea export
quantity tended to decrease. Although export
quantities decreased by 12.68% in the period of
1990 to 1997, it strongly increased during the
period 1998 to 2004, reaching 21.08%, and then
decreased by 7.57% during the period from 2005
to 2012. However, from 2013-2016, Vietnam
witnessed a significant drop in the tea export
quantity leading to the decrease of the tea export
value by 1.27%.
On the contrary, the growth rate of the tea
export value tended to increase, which explains
why tea exports in Vietnam have made
considerable progress by diminishing the volume
Table 4 shows that the growth rate of the tea
export quantity increased an average of 10.57%
during the period from 1990 to 2018. However,
Table 3. The main export markets of Vietnamese tea in the period of 2000-2018
Country
Market share (%)
Exports value (million USD)
Growth (%)
Pakistan
Taiwan
Russia
Iraq
20.85
14.48
9.99
8.08
6.10
3.59
3.07
2.90
2.52
2.30
2.21
2.18
1.22
1.07
1.02
26.88
18.66
12.88
10.42
7.86
4.62
3.96
3.73
3.25
2.96
2.85
2.81
1,57
1.37
1.32
16.4
10.8
21.1
-23.3
42.4
-6.0
China
India
Indonesia
Germany
UAE
27.3
12.6
34.4
29.1
7.6
USA
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Japan
25.1
-9.9
Philippines
Malaysia
56.4
28.6
Source: FAO (2018) and our calculations.
Table 4. Growth rate of tea export quantity and value in Vietnam (1990-2018)
Periods
1990-1997
12.68
1998-2004
21.08
2005-2012
7.57
2013-2016
-5.58
2017-2018
15.78
Average
10.57
Exports quantity (%)
Exports value (%)
11.80
11.44
12.75
-1.27
11.73
10.56
Exports quantity (000 tons)
Exports value (mil. USD)
19.21
61.73
120.25
161.56
80.42
158.34
265.95
97.32
24.12
68.64
109.43
105.51
Source: FAO (2018) and our calculations.
Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences
640
To The Nguyen et al. (2020)
and improving the quality. To be more precise,
as shown in Table 4, the export value increased
around 11.8% in the period of 1990 to 1997, by
11.4% in the period of 1998 to 2004, and by
12.75% in the period of 2005 to 2012. Overall,
the growth rate of the tea export value increased
by 10.56% during the period from 1990 to 2018.
On the contrary, under the impact of global tea
demand, the growth rate of the tea export
quantity and value were reduced by 5.58% and
1.27%, respectively, in the period of 2013-2016.
Since 2017, the tea export quantity has
significantly increased, followed by the tea
export value. As can also be seen from a set of
sub-figures in Figure 1, the phenomenon of
decreased tea export quantity is illustrated while
the production quantity, production areas, and
productivity continued to grow.
period from 1998-2004, and by 161.5 million
dollars in the period of 2005 to 2012. Overall,
the value of the exported tea increased on
average by 105.51 million dollars during the
period from 1990 till 2018.
Figure 2 indicates the relationship between
the regressor, namely the tea export quantity, and
the explanatory variables. It can be seen that
except for the export price, all the remaining
regressands are more likely to explain the tea
export quantity. This is not unexpected because
the tea export price depended on the global
market price while tea production was still based
on the national production capacity.
Determinants of Vietnamese tea export quantity
The descriptive collected data are displayed
in Table 5. We can easily observe the large
standard deviations of each variable in the table
that explicitly signify changes in the tea export
quantity and total production quantity. On
average, Vietnam has exported 40.91 tons of tea
to the world market with a price of USD 1,230
per ton. The tea export price was less likely to
change throughout the 58 years, which can be
seen by the relatively small standard deviation at
USD 0.27 per kg. As can be seen in Figure 3, the
tea production quantity had a large expansion
from 2000 up to 2018, followed by tea
productivity that implicitly indicates the latent
effectiveness of Vietnamese government policies
in terms of stimulating the development of the tea
Under different aspects, Table 4 also shows
that the quantity of the exported tea had increased
by an average of 97.32 thousand tons during the
period from 1990 till 2018. Although it decreased
by roughly 40 thousand tons in the period of
2013-2016, during the preceding period from
2005 to 2012 it increased by 120.2 thousand tons,
and increased by 77.92 thousand tons during the
period from 2017 to 2018. Similarly, the value
of the exported tea increased more significantly
than the quantity of the exported tea. To be more
precise, as shown in Table 4, the value grew by
24.1 million dollars in the period of 1990 to
1997, rose by 68.6 million dollars in the next
(a) Export quantity vs. productivity from
1961 to 2018
(b) Export quantity vs. export price from
1961 to 2018
Figure 1. Time trend of Vietnam’s export quantity and other criteria from 1961 to 2018
641
Vietnamese tea exporting and forecasting to 2030
150
100
200
series
Export.QuanV
AreaV
series
Export.QuanV
QuanV
change
100
change
50
0
2020
1960
2000
1960
2000
1980
1980
2020
Year
Year
(a) Export quantity vs. production quantity
from 1961 to 2018
(b) Export quantity vs. production area from
1961 to 2018
150
150
100
change
series
100
series
Export.QuanV
Export.QuanV
ProdV
change
50
Export.price
50
0
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
Year
(c) Export quantity vs. productivity from
1961 to 2018
(d) Export quantity vs. export price from
1961 to 2018
Figure 2. Vietnam export quantity and other criteria from 1961 to 2018
Table 5. Descriptive statistics for the characteristics of Vietnamese tea (n = 58)
Variable
Unit
Mean
40.91
59.91
74.50
9.45
Std.Dev.
48.36
34.14
80.52
5.47
Tea export quantity
Total production area
Total production quantity
Tea productivity
103 tons
103 ha
103 tons
tons ha-1
USD kg-1
103 tons
Tea export price
1.23
0.27
World production
2820.19
1481.47
Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences
642
To The Nguyen et al. (2020)
industry in Vietnam since 2000 via each 5-year
planning stage.
The export price was significantly positive, while
the world quantity was significantly negative.
Our results represent the true story of every
single commercial agricultural product entering
the global market. When the price went up and
the global demand did not change or increased,
we tended to export more. On the other hand,
other countries that export tea are Vietnam’s
competitors in the global market and as a result,
when the tea quantity of other tea exporters
increased by 1,000 tons, our tea export quantity
dropped by 34 tons (Table 6). To be competitive
at the global scale, we need appropriate solutions
to acquire a larger market share for stably
developing the tea exports of Vietnam.
All the general information of the regression
promised a good model. Specifically, except for
the total tea production, which had a negative and
insignificant impact, the production area, export
price, and tea productivity had positive
significant effects on the tea export quantity of
Vietnam. On average, when the cultivated tea
area increased by 1,000ha, the tea export quantity
grew by 1,307 tons (Table 6). This signifies the
suitability of land accumulation legislated by the
government to increase the quantity of tea
produced in the coming years. Similarly, when
the tea productivity increased by 1 ton per ha, the
tea export quantity grew by 12.096 tons, on
average, when the other variables were held
constant. This indicates the importance of
enhancing tea productivity to the produced
quantity as well as the total export quantity in
which the opportunity of acquiring a larger
market share of Vietnamese tea might become
possible. The total produced quantity had a
negative but insignificant impact on the tea
export quantity; however, this points out that the
majority of tea produced in Vietnam had been
used domestically rather than exported. This also
latently indicated that the global demand for
Vietnamese tea had fallen leading to unexported
tea being consumed nationally. In addition, the
latent explanation for this issue might come from
the rumor of “dirty tea” from Vietnam that
directly led to the difficulty in exporting
Vietnamese tea in the period 2013-2016.
Forecasting Vietnam’s tea export quantity to
2030
In Table 7, we observe the prediction results
of Vietnam’s tea export quantity up to 2030. The
predictions inform us that in 2019, the expected
total tea export quantity should have reached
180.986 thousand tons, meanwhile, the total
export value in 2030 might increase 231% as
compared to that in 2019. However, the predicted
increment pace using a conventional back-
transformation was lower than using the bias-
adjustment
method from
a
Box-Cox
transformation. The bias-adjustment forecasted
that the growth rate of the tea export quantity
could reach 291% in a period of 12 years. The
prediction is robust evidence for Vietnamese tea
producers and policymakers to construct
appropriate strategies for improving tea exports
as well as acquiring of a larger market share for
Vietnam in the global tea market.
Regarding the external factors, the tea export
price and total global tea production had inverse
impacts on the Vietnamese tea export quantity.
Furthermore, we attempted to predict the
Table 6. Summary of the time-series linear model
Variable
Intercept
Coefficient
Std.Error
16.118
0.171
t-value
(-3.375)
(-0.911)
(4.773)
(1.816)
(2.761)
(-4.525)
-54.397∗∗∗
-0.206
Total quantity
Production area
Export price
Productivity
World quantity
1.307∗∗∗
11.715∗
12.096∗∗
-0.034∗∗∗
0.012
0.017
0.002
0.299
Notes: z-statistics are in the parentheses; ∗, ∗∗ and ∗∗∗ indicate significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.
643
Vietnamese tea exporting and forecasting to 2030
Table 7. Forecasting using Box-Cox transformation
Year
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Back-transformation
180.986
Bias-adjustment
187.081
207.141
229.209
253.478
280.158
309.478
341.691
377.071
415.917
458.559
505.353
556.691
Low 95
108.826
98.925
93.161
89.479
87.071
85.533
84.632
84.229
84.227
84.565
85.196
86.089
High 95
300.993
385.824
477.385
579.143
693.489
822.603
968.704
1134.162
1321.562
1533.757
1773.913
2045.548
195.366
210.887
227.643
245.730
265.253
286.328
309.077
333.634
360.142
388.756
419.643
export quantity of Vietnam in the next 10 years
by using Box-Cox transformations called simple
back-transformed forecasts (median) and bias-
adjustments (mean). When we used the mean,
rather than the median, our analysis estimated the
point forecasts based on a bias-adjustment.
Figure 3 illustrates the forecasted changes of tea
exports up to 2030 using the two methods. It can
easily be seen that the tea export quantity
potentially grows at a significantly high rate. The
bias-adjustment method gave us a higher
increment pace of tea export quantity compared
to the conventional back-transformed forecast.
Therefore, in order to sustainably develop
Vietnam’s tea industry, the government needs to
take supportive actions such as investing in in-
depth tea processing to improve Vietnam’s tea
export quality, focusing on post-harvest
activities, investing in organic or high-value tea
rather than conventional tea, continuing to
accumulate land to support the growth of
cultivated tea areas, and maintaining high
productivity by using hybrid seeds.
that Sri Lanka also possessed a bright future of
either producing or exporting tea in larger
quantities. In addition, Chang (2015) predicted
an increment of global tea export quantity up to
2030. In this context, the Vietnamese tea sector
should rely on these published data to carefully
plan for developing tea production effectively
and sustainably.
Conclusions
The study provided an overview of the
Vietnamese tea export situation across 58 years
from 1961 to 2018. Generally, the tea exports of
Vietnam have had an upward trend, however,
Vietnam witnessed a significant fall of the tea
export quantity during 2013-2016, although the
tea export price slightly increased. We employed
a time-series linear model to estimate the
relationship between the tea export quantity and
its determinants. Except for the total domestic
quantity, the production area, export price, and
productivity had positively significant impacts
on the tea export quantity, while the world tea
production had a negatively significant effect.
The two major competitors of Vietnamese
tea exports, India and Sri Lanka, have also been
predicted to have an upward trend of total tea
production. Ghosh (2017) studied the potential
trend of India’s tea exports using 79 months of
data and produced results similar to ours.
Similarly, Kumarasinghe et al. (2018) argued
Our results suggested that in areas where tea
was planted, tea productivity increased the tea
export quantity, meanwhile, due to the rise of
other countries exporting tea of a higher quality
than Vietnamese tea, the tea export quantity led
Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences
644
To The Nguyen et al. (2020)
Forecasts from ETS(A,A,N)
1500
1000
Quantity of
tea export
Forecast
Biased adjusted
Simple back transformation
500
0
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
Figure 3. Forecasting the trend of Vietnamese tea export quantity
to the downfall of tea exports. The tea price had
the least fluctuation, which could potentially
secure a good fortune if Vietnam could export a
larger tea quantity. Therefore, in order to
sustainably develop Vietnam’s tea industry, the
government needs to take supportive actions
such as investing in in-depth tea processing to
improve Vietnam’s tea export quality, focusing
on post-harvest activities, investing in organic or
high-value tea rather than conventional tea,
continuing to accumulate land to support the
growth of cultivated tea areas, and maintaining
high productivity by using hybrid seeds.
developed in order to increase the consumption
of domestic tea. Our analysis opened the door for
further research on Vietnamese tea exports in
order to account for the impacts of the Trans-
Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
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