Tóm tắt Luận án Prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV
INTRODUCTION
1. Rationale
Credit risk is one of the main risks, having strong impact on business activities
of commercial banks. Credit risk also affects the capability to appeal for funds of
businesses, leading to negative impacts on the growth and development of the
economy. Despite the detrimental effects, commercial banks cannot radically
eradicate credit risks. They can only mitigate the risks at a certain level. In the credit
activity of commercial banks, they accept the risk and trade them for profits instead
of choosing a strategy to eradicate risks. The system of credit risk management of a
bank ensures that the bank always manage the risks at an appropriate level (the level
of risk that the bank can accept) that is suitable for the scale and credit business
nature of the banks and obtains the highest profit.
Nowadays, credit activity plays an essential role for Vietnamese commercial
banks and brings the most profits. However, credit activity possesses many risks,
especially in the case of conforming to international practices where Vietnamese
commercial banks express many downsides. In that context, no financial bank or
organization can perudably survive without an effective risk management system.
The development of a general management system and a specific credit risk
management system has crucial role for bank activities.
The Basel II Accord is the agreement between Central Banks of the nations
belonging to the Basel Commitee on a managerial, regulatory and supervising
mechanism of banking activities in order to improve the effectiveness of risk
management, especially credit risk. In 2006, the Accord comes into practice with the
financial institutions implemented in nations of Basel Committee. Recently,
according to the investigation of Basel Committee, the Accord has been vastly
implemented in commercial banks of more than 150 countries, including those who
are not members of Basel Committee as an international standard on risk
management, inspection and supervision of activities of commercial banks.
In Vietnam, March 20th 1014, the National Bank (NB) announced the official
guidelines on the implementations of Basel II by Correspondence 1601/NHNN-
TTGSNH. According to the Correspondence, 10 Vietnamese Commercial banks
including BIDV, are chosen for process testing, other commercial banks will
implement the Accord after the testing period.
Besides, at BIDV in the previous period existed many emerging issues relating
to credit, profoundly affecting business activity of the bank and its prestige nationally
and internationally, leading to strong impact on the well-being of labourers. All those
effects root from credit risks in credit granting procedure.
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Originating from the awareness of the theory and reality above, the PhD student
decides to choose the topic “Prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV” for his
doctoral thesis, with the hope of completing one’s professional theory, approaching and
studying the credit risk in reality and first-hand suggesting a number of solutions with an aim
to preventing and mitigating the risks at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and
Development of Vietnam.
2. Background of the research situation
2.1 International background
Until recently, there are various theoretical research and empirical models
relating to the prevention and mitigation of credit risk nationally and internationally.
The most popular ones are the following:
- Risk Management in Banking, Josel Basis (1998) [59], Dictionary of
Banking, Christian Frey (1998) [60]. In this document, the author has generalized
and clarified basic theoretical problems of credit risk management including basic
concepts of credit risk, credit risk management... Apart from the basic concepts, the
author also has in-depth research about part of the discussion about credit risk
management models, property management and responsibility, credit scoring, risk-
based capital, VAR, loan portfolio management, credit fund scoring and capital
distribution.
- Credit risk measurement models - Joke Basis (1998), Chrinko (2000), Crolina
(2001). In this document the significant research is the emphasis of the credit risk
measurement models of commercial banks.
- ANZ Consolidated Annual Report [50], Credit risk mangement work book of Citibank
[68]. According to this research, the author has summarized the reality of risk management at
ANZ and Citibank. Based on this, it is possible to study the experiences of the implementation
of risk management models at ANZ, Citibank...
The mentioned research generally has provided the standard and thorough theoretical basis
of credit risk, the prevention and mitigation of credit risk and credit risk measurement model as
well as the conditions ensuring the development of credit risk measurement and controlling
models. This is the important basis which facilitates the study of the topic of thesis.
2.2 National background
Prevention and mitigation of credit risk is an issue that is the concern of many
researchers and bank managers. In Vietnam, there are many research and studies, scientific
discussion on the prevention and mitigation of credit risk, particularly:
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- “A text book on commercial bank credit management” of Associate Professor
Đinh Xuân Hạng, M.A. Nguyễn Văn Lộc (2012) [1Error! Reference source not
found.].
The textbook is the most basic study, the basis of all analysis, deeper research
into credit as well as credit risk. The author has introduced the basic concepts of
loaning of commercial banks, a number of controllings on loaning, scientifically
stated the procedure and analysis of commercial bank credit, such as: loaning
procedure, credit record, credit analysis in banks. Besides, the author also carried out
research on the effects of credit on business activity. On the topic of credit risk in
commercial banks, the author has clearly stated every content of credit risk, credit
risk management, the methods of prevention and dealing with credit risk.
- “Scientific basis on determining the credit risk management model in
Vietnamese commercial banks” (2010) of author Lê Thị Huyền Diệu [Error!
Reference source not found.].
The thesis concentrates on the study of credit risk, the causes, signs, determinants
of credit risks in business activity. The thesis simultaneously systematizes the basic
content of credit risk management clearly, and on whose basis provides credit risk
management models and the implementation conditions. It summarizes the basic
theories of credit risk management, especially the basic steps including: risk
identification, measurement, management, controlling and debt settlement. The thesis
studies the case of credit risk of Vietnamese commercial banking system before and
after the year 2000, in which the author systematizes the legal basis, credit
characteristics and current situation of credit risks in two periods. The before-2000
period shows that credit risk most of the time exists in the loaning which heavily
focuses on state-owned-enterprises, the rocketing mid and long term-loaning rate
together with the increasing overdue debt ratio over periods. In the after-2000 period,
the legal environment has improved, thus the risks decrease. The thesis analyzes the
implementation of credit risk management models of Vietnamese commercial banks
according to three indicators: credit risk management organization model, risk
measurement model and risk controlling model. On these basis, the thesis sugest the
appropriate model for implementation in Vietnam.
In reality, every bank has its own characteristics of organization, capital size,
prioritized operational aspect, form of ownership, technological and human resources
level...As a result, the solutions might be unsuitable for a specific bank.
- “Solution of credit risk management of Vietnam joint stock commercial bank
for industry and trade”. Doctoral thesis in Economics of author Nguyễn Như
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Dương (2018), Academy of Finance [9].
In the thesis, the author has stated and determined the subject of the study to
be the suggestion of solutions and recommendations in order to improve the credit
risk management activity at Vietinbank. Scope of research: Location: The thesis
focuses on studying the credit risk management in banking activity of Vietinbank;
Time: Examining and analyzing the actual situation of credit risk management in
period 2011 – 2017. The solution is adopted according to procedure until the year
2030.
- “Improvement of credit quality at Vietnam Jointstock commercial bank for
Foreign Trade in the process of integration” Doctoral thesis in Economics of
author Nguyễn Thị Thu Đông (2012), National Economics University [12].
In the content of thesis, the author has clarified the theoretical basis of credit
quality, determinants of credit quality and experiences in improving credit quality of
banks in the world. In the authentic assessment, the author assesses the actual
situation of credit quality of Vietcombank, in which one of the important
determinants is bad deb ratio of the bank. The author lists the solutions in order to
improve credit quality including one crucial solution_bad debt management and
credit risk controlling.
- “Credit risk management at Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank” of author
Nguyễn Quang Hiện [21].
In this thesis, the author systematizes theoretical basis on credit risk, credit risk
management at commercial banks with additions of recent changes when banks
implement the regulations in Basel II Accord; the experiences of credit risk activity
of commercial banks in the world, based on which the lessons on credit risk
management of commercial banks of Vietnam are derived.
The author assesses credit risk, credit risk management of Military Commercial
Joint Stock Bank in the period 2011-2015 and states the causes of the drawbacks of
credit risk management activity of Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank.
The author suggests the solutions, recommendations for the government,
national bank, National Financial Supervisory Commission in order to improve and
increase the volume of credit risk management activities at Military Commercial
Joint Stock Bank.
- “Credit risk management according to Basel II Accord at Vietnam Bank for
Agriculture and Rural Development” of author Trần Thị Việt Thạch [Error! Reference
source not found.].
The thesis has systematized basic issues of credit risk management which are
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approach according to the standards of Basel II Accord at commercial banks, clarified
the benefits brought about by the implementation of Basel II in the credit risk
management of commercial banks and conditions for the implementation of credit risk
management according to Basel II. The thesis correctly assesses the current situation
of credit risk management to determine the level of meeting the Basel II requirements
on credit risk management at Agribank. On this basis, the author suggests solutions
and conditions to adopt them to implement credit risk management according to Basel
II, with an aim to fulfill the standards of Basel II at the end of the year 2020.
- “Credit risk management at Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for
Industry and Trade” of author Nguyễn Đức Tú [47].
The thesis clarifies the theoretical basis of credit risk of commercial banks, the
necessity to credit risk management, the content of credit risk management,
including: identification, measurement, countermeasure, control of credit risk.
Additionally, the author has in-depth understanding of the credit risk management
experiences of banks such as: Korea Development Bank, Nova Scotia Bank of
Canada, Citibank of the USA, ING Bank of Netherlands, KasiKom Bank of
Thailand. The author draws valuable lessons on credit risk management of Vietnam
Joint Commercial Bank from thorough understanding of the credit risk management
of the mentioned banks.
In the authentic assessment, the author studies and assesses credit risk and its
management at Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade. The
author assesses the achieved results including: debt quality, debt structure,
framework, mechanism, system of credit rating... Additionally, the author states and
assesses the downsides of credit risk management of the bank as well as its
inappropriate credit risk strategy, credit granting procedure, credit measurement
system... and the causes of the downsides. The author also presents the direction of
and ways for improving credit risk management at the bank, and at the same time
suggests recommendations to the government, national bank and the national
financial supervisory commission.
2.3. Study questions and limitations of the study
2.3.1 Study questions
What is credit risk? What does it mean to prevent and mitigate credit risk? What
is the content and actual situation of preventing and mitigating credit risk of BIDV
and the solutions to prevent and mitigate credit risk of BIDV in the next time period?
These are the study questions that need answers.
2.3.2 Limitations of the study
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The mentioned studies have greatly contributed to the presentation of basic
theories on the prevention and mitigation of credit risk over the last period. However,
they also mention a number of limitations on credit risk prevention and mitigation at
BIDV from 2014 to 2018.
The limitations in theoretical study of credit risk, prevention and mitigation of
credit risk and the current situation of it at BIDV:
- The theoretical basis is not systematic and updated on credit risk in the recent
period when Vietnam National Bank is in the process of implementation of credit
risk management according to Basel II. Additionally, Vietnam has increasedly
profound economic integration with local and international countries.
- Most of the studies on credit risk consider the risk as an issue that the bank
must accept. In other words, credit risk is considered an apparent issue in credit
activity of a bank. Everybank is not without credit risk and has their own
characterized type of risk.
- On the other hand, there has not been any comprehensive scientific study on
credit risk and the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV from 2014 to
2018 as well as the suggestion of solutions to prevent and mitigate credit risk at
BIDV.
As a result, the topic “The prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV” is
developed in order to support the study on theoretical basis, which will be adopted in
practical conditions at BIDV from 2014 to 2018, based on which solutions to prevent
and mitigate credit risk until the year 2030 will be suggested.
3. Aim of the study
Suggestion of solutions and recommendations for the prevention and mitigation
of credit risk at BIDV.
As the mentioned aim of the study, the missions of the study are as following:
- Clarifying the theories on the prevention and mitigation of credit risk in
today’s conditions.
- Drawing lessons on prevention, mitigation of credit risk for Vietnam
commercial banks from studying the experiences of a number of commercial banks
in the world.
- Assessing the current situation of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk
at BIDV from 2014 to 2018 systematically.
- Suggesting solutions to prevent and mitigate credit risk at BIDV until 2030.
4. Subject and scope of the study
4.1 Subject of the study
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Coming from the rationale of the subject of the study, on the basis of the
requirements and ability to study, the PhD student chooses the main subjects of
“credit risk” and “prevention and mitigation of credit risk at commercial banks”.
4.2 Scope of the study
- Content: The thesis concentrates on studying the prevention and mitigation of
credit risk at BIDV of its loaning activities and approaches the subject according to
current laws and regulations.
- Location: The thesis focuses on the prevention and mitigation of credit risk of
loaning activities at BIDV
- Time: Surveillance and analysis of the current situation of prevention and
mitigation of loaning activities at BIDV from 2014 to 2018. The solutions are
adopted until the year 2030.
5. Methods of the study
The thesis adopts the method of dialectical materialism and historical
materialism in order to ensure that the awareness of the preventation and mitigation
of credit risk according to international standards at commercial banks generally and
at BIDV specifically is logical from visual awareness to thinking and realistic
perception, in the dialectical relationship between parts of the same system, between
the system and the surrounding environment and appropriate for its natural law of
motion.
On the basis of method of dialectical materialism and historical materialism, in
order to obtain scientific analysis, assessment, reasoning on the subject, the PhD
student chooses the following methods:
Scientific reasoning methods: Induction, deduction, analogy, analysis, summary,
reconciliation, comparison, systematization, generalization methods are used for the
information collected by the PhD student to clarify basic theoretical concepts of the
preventation and mitigation of credit risk at commercial bank and the current
situation of preventation and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV.
Statistical method: The collection of primary and secondary information
relating to the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV following the order
from internal reports to reports of State management authorities and direct
supervision at the operation center and various branches to collect information for
the study of the thesis.
Comparison, analysis and summary method: Based on the results of statistical
analysis, comparison, analysis and summary of the data in statistical reports of
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BIDV, PhD student assesses the current situation of credit risk and the prevention
and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV in the period from 2014 to 2018.
Logical reasoning: From the basic theoretical and basic practical issues,
especially from the weakness of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk system
and causes of credit risk at BIDV, PhD presents logical reasons for recommendations
and solutions to improve the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV.
Questionnaire method: The questionnaires on the current situation of credit risk
controlling are distributed at the following branches: Operation center 1, Operation
center 3, Hanoi Branch, Da Nang Branch, Hung Yen, Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Ky
Hoa, Ham Nghi, District 7 and District 9 Ho Chi Minh City, Long An, Moc Hoa
Branch to obtain more information for the assessment of the prevention and
mitigation of credit risk at BIDV branches. The representativeness of the branches
chosen by the PhD student is ensured: There are branches in big city and in rural
areas, branches with high bad-debt ratio and low bad-debt ratio. As the quantitative
models, capital measurement formulas, measurement and assessment formulas of
credit risk are mentioned and their precision and scientificness have already been
approved, the PhD student will not have an in-depth look on mathematic techniques
but will automatically accept the results of the related studies when it comes to the
measurement, assessment and quantification of credit risk.
6. New contributions of the thesis
- New basic theoretical contributions:
Systematization of the theoretical basis on the prevention and mitigation of
credit risk, and that of commercial banks with an addition of new changes when
banks are in the process of implementing regulations of Basel II. Systematization of
lessons and experiences of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk activities of
various banks in the world, from which the lessons which can be reference material
for commercial banks in Vietnam generally and BIDV specifically are drawn.
- New practical contributions:
+ The PhD student utilizes the basic theoretical knowledge on the prevention
and mitigation of credit risk: the content related to credit risk, credit risk
measurement models, impact factors and the implementation of the prevention and
mitigation of credit risk in Vietnam according to international practices in order to
comprehensively and systematically assess the curent status of the credit risk
prevention and mitigation activities at BIDV from 2014 to 2018. With a variety of
updated data withou unknown sources, the thesis has presented the level of success,
downsides and their causes. From the quantitative studies, the thesis produces
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reliable practical results. The thesis has a practical assessment method with more
advantages than other announced works with similar topics.
+ The thesis suggests new solutions, innovative and modern content to improve
credit risk management at BIDV till the year 2030, such as: Developing and
completing credit risk management strategy; completing the credit risk prevention
and mitigation model; completing the set of rules of credit risk prevention and
mitigation; improving the quality of credit risk appraisal; improving effective control
of credit after disbursement of funds...; suggesting recommendations to responsible
authorities in order to prevent and mitigate credit risk at BIDV till the year 2030.
7. Structure of the thesis
Apart from the introduction, conclusion, reference and appendices, the thesis
consists of three chapters:
- Chapter 1: Theories on the prevention and mitigation of credit risk of
commercial bank.
- Chapter 2: Current situation of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at
BIDV.
- Chapter 3: Solutions to prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV.
CHAPTER 1
THEORIES ON THE PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF CREDIT
RISK OF COMMERCIAL BANK
1.1 CREDIT RISK OF COMMERCIAL BANK
1.1.1 Credit activity of commercial bank
Credit activity of commercial bank is the relationship between lenders and
borrowers with the repayment of both the loan and interest in a specific time period,
the relationship of temporary transference of capital and mutually benefited for both
sides.
Apart from the defition, this content also mentions the classification,
characteristics and roles of credit activity of commercial bank.
1.1.2 Credit risk of commercial bank
1.1.2.1 Definition of credit risk
Credit risk is the possibility of a loss or financial casualty that commercial bank
must bear because of a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or/ and its interest or meet
the payment deadline.
1.1.2.2 Classification of credit risk
- Based on characteristics of credit risk: default risk and deferred payment risk.
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- Based on the classification of credit loans: there are five types of credit risks.
- Based on the causes of credit risk: transaction risk and portfolio risk.
- Based on the scale of credit risk: unique/ unsystematic risk and systematic
risk.
1.1.2.3 Causes of credit risk
Objective causes: Political and legal environment; economic environment;
borrowers.
Subjective causes: Credit policy of the bank; poor skills and disqualification as
well as the violation of code of ethics and conduct of the credit officers; lack of
supervision and risk management after granting loans; unthorough internal
inspection: lack of cooperation between commercial banks; the management’s
unfulfillment of its role; inappropriate credit model; concentration of credit
portfolios; irregular assessment of credit activity.
1.1.2.4 Indicators of credit risk measurement
In order to identify credit risk, it is possible to base on direct indicators, such as:
overdue debt, bad debt, credit loss provision. Additionally, indirect indicators
including: credit amount, the increase of credit amount, credit structure and other
indicators.
1.1.2.5 Impact of credit risk
Negative effect on the performance of the bank: Increasing the cost of capital;
decreasing profit; posing a threat to the bank’s solvency; forcing the bank to increase
capital to compensate for credit losses; curbing the credit growth; damaging the
bank’s reputation.
Detrimental impact on the economy: Causing economic stagnation; leading to
an unstable financial-banking system; negatively affecting the state budget.
1.2 THE PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF CREDIT RISK OF
COMMERCIAL BANK
1.2.1 Definition of prevention and mitigation of credit risk
Prevention and mitigation of credit risk are solutions aiming to ultimately
prevent the rising of risks, such as the borrower fails or partly meets their
obligations, causing losses to the bank; the borrower does not make a repayment or
only pays a part of the debt, not pay on time both the loan and the interest.
1.2.2 Content of prevention and mitigation of credit risk
1.2.2.1 Developing credit risk prevention and mitigation strategy
- Developing a strategy for the prevention and mitigation of credit risk.
- Formulating a policy for the prevention and mitigation of credit risk.
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1.2.2.2 Developing a credit risk prevention and mitigation model
a. Model of credit risk concentration management
The model in which the authority of credit granting concentrates on independent
credit approval individuals or a group of people (credit committee, credit
department...).
b. Model of credit risk dispersion management
The model in which each manager, board of management of business units is
responsible for a specific level of credit decision. When granting a higher level of
credit, the business unit must present the document to higher authority for approval.
1.2.2.3 Organizing the prevention and mitigation of credit risk
a. Credit risk identification
On the basis of the identification of risk, risk managers continue with the next
steps. This is one of the most important content of the credit risk management. In
order to identify a risk, it is necessary to examine the signs and base on which to
analyze and assess the risk, realizing its nature, impact factors and their level of
impact on credit risk of commercial banks.
b. Credit risk analysis, assessment and measurement
Based on the indentification signs, the next steps are analyzing, assessing and
measuring credit risk.
c. Response to credit risk
In order to deal with credit risk, the bank often use risk dispersion, risk
prevention, risk insurance tools and settle bad debts
d. Control of credit risk
Credit risk control is one content of credit risk management and is
simultaneously carried out together with risk management aiming to: (i) prevent and
control possible risks that might arise in banking activity; (ii) ensure all activities,
departments and individuals are in accordance with legal regulations, levels of
authority, ensure safety and effectiveness in activities of the bank.
1.2.3 Factors affecting the prevention and mitigation of credit risk
Objective factors: lack of awareness; lack of conform with current regulations;
moral degradation and irresposibility of lending officers; inappropriate internal
inspection; inappropriate supervision and debt management after issuing a debt; lack
of customer information.
Subjective factors: Customer related factors; factors originated from the
ownership of the government…
1.3
LESSONS
AND
INTERNATIONAL
EXPERIENCES
IN
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PREVENTING AND MITIGATING CREDIT RISKS
1.3.1 International experiences on the prevention and mitigation of credit
risks of a number of banks in the world
In this section, the thesis studies the experiences of ANZ, Bangkokbank,
KDBank, and Citibank in order to form a basis for BIDV experiences.
1.3.2 Lessons for Vietnam’s commercial banks
From studying the experiences of credit risk management of various banks in
the world, there are many lessons for Vietnamese commercial banks that can be
drawn as following:
- Execute the prevention and mitigation of credit risk in accordance with
international practices.
- Choose a credit risk management model based on specific conditions.
- Notice that the effectiveness of the credit risk management depends on its
steps.
- Improve and conform to legal systems.
- Modernize technology to effectively implement the credit risk management
model.
CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 1
Chapter 1 has generalized the basic concepts of credit risk and the prevention
and mitigation of credit risk including credit risk’s nature, classification, causes and
credit risk impact on commercial banks. An important content of this chapter is the
prevention and mitigation of credit risk, in which the definitions, necessity, content
including: credit risk indentification, analysis, assessment, response and control are
clarified. In addition, this chapter has an in-depth look on credit risk prevention and
mitigation models, experiences on the credit risk prevention and mitigation of banks
in the world and lessons for Vietnamese banks and BIDV.
CHAPTER 2
CURRENT SITUATION OF CREDIT RISK PREVENTION AND
MITIGATION OF THE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK FOR
INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM
2.1 BACKGROUND OF THE JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK
FOR INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM
The thesis presents the history of the establishment and development, structure
of the organization, credit risk current situation and the performance results of BIDV
from 2014 to 2018.
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2.2 CURRENT SITUATION OF THE PREVENTION AND
MITIGATION OF CREDIT RISK AT BIDV
2.2.1 Current situation of strategy and policy of credit risk prevention and
mitigation at BIDV
BIDV has always been the pioneer of implementing the best international
practices to manage business activity, especially to prevent and mitigate credit risk.
BIDV maintains a credit risk management policy that ensures the following
basic rules: establishing a suitable credit risk management environment; following an
appropriate credit-granting-procedure; maintaining an appropriate process of credit
management, measurement and supervision; ensuring full control over credit risk.
2.2.2 Current situation of the credit risk prevention and mitigation model
of BIDV
Nowadays, BIDV implements a credit risk prevention and mitigation dispersion
model, in which the organization credit risk management is at different parts of the
organization, the authority and risk management of the loan does not focus on the
head office but on various branches.
2.2.3 Current situation of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at
BIDV
(1) Current situation of credit risk identification
Identify credit risks comprehensively and continuously in all periods when
credit risk might arise, according to specific requirements of each type of credit
transaction. Credit risk indentification process at BIDV is executed in a specific
order.
(2) Current situation of credit risk analysis, assessment, and measurement
a. Credit analysis and assessment of credit activity
The determinants of the amount of credit expressed in the credit outstanding
balance of BIDV in 2014 are 445,692 billions VND and increased up to 988,738
billions VND in 2018, with the growth rate of 122%. The growth rate of credit
outstanding balance also expresses the level of credit risk of the bak. With the high
growth rate, it is essential to develop effective policies and tools to prevent and
mitigate credit risk to control the level of credit risk according to plans.
- Bad debt indicators of BIDV account for a low portion of total outstanding
credit balance. However, the indicators have the tendency to rise in recent years. The
credit risk is in a controllable level, lower than the avarage level of the organization.
On the other hand, the credit risk management has many downsides and it will have
negative impacts if there are not any appropriate measure including the credit risk
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prevention and mitigation dispersion model currently in use.
b. Credit risk analysis and assessment for customers by means of credit
ratings
In 2016, BIDV has completed and introduced the internal credit rating system
along with the debt classification program and credit risk provision, assisting in
meeting the requirements of debt classification and risk provision in Circular
02/2013/TT-NHNN of the National Bank, and at the same time facilitating the
collection of necessary data for the development of credit risk quatification model in
accordance with the international standards of Basel II.
Generally, the credit risk measurement according to the requirements of
National Bank only assesses the risk and classifies the loans after issuing the loan,
but does not predict risks. This measurement method mainly assists in settling bad
debts rather than preventing and managing credit risk.
(3). Current situation of response to credit risk
Credit risk response includes loan mangement, risk limitations formulation,
authorization level granting, risk provision and classification, bad debt settlement,
and doubtful debt management.
Table 2.11: Provision for credit risk of BIDV from 2014 to 2018
Unit: Billion VND
2018
Indicators
Bad debt outstanding balance
Credit risk provision
2014
2015
2016
2017
18,802
18,893
9,055 10,052 14,427 13,948
6,622
0.73
7,517 10,063 11,349
0.75 0.70 0.81
Risk provision/ bad debt
1.00
Source: [30], [31], [32], [33], [34]
It can be seen that BIDV’s risk provision has the tendency to rocket: from 6,622
billions in 2014 to 18,893 billions in 2018. The increase in risk provision shows that
BIDV put the credit risk prevention and mitigation into great consideration.
(4) Current situation of credit risk control
Credit risk control techniques are clearly shown in the system of policy
execution papers of BIDV. The techniques include: risk avoidance, risk prevention,
loss reduction, risk diversification.
2.2.4 Current situation of the introduction of credit risk prevention and
mitigation system according to Basel II
- BIDV introduces the project Basel in the year from 2017 to 2019 including 57
projects, with the duration time until 2020, divided into 6 parts: credit risk, market
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risk, performance risk, liquidity risk, bank ledger interest, ICAAP – integrated bank,
information and data technology.
2.2.5 The adoption of econometric model to assess the current situation of
preventing and mitigating credit risk at BIDV
2.2.5.1 Study model
Based on the aim and questions of the study, the thesis is developed in three
aspects: (1) Study of theories of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at
commercial banks; (2) Study of the current situation of the credit risk prevention and
mitigation at commercial banks; (3) Solutions for the prevention and mitigation of
credit risk at BIDV.
2.2.5.2 Methods of the study
(1) Basis of the methodology:
The basis of the methodology of the thesis is the dialectical materialism method
adopted by means of the collection, procession, analysis of data based on the
awareness of the study issues from theoretical basis to practical prevention and
mitigation of credit risk at BIDV from 2014 to 2018.The examination of the related
published studies, data and practical examples will be executed by means of
inspection, selection of sample and questionnaire.
(2) Means and approach procedure of the thesis
In order to approach the study topic, solve the study question and achieve the
aim of the study, the thesis combines quantitative research and qualitative research.
(3) Design of the study
The design of the study is a detailed design that formulates data collection
method, processing and analyzing tools of the collected data that the thesis chooses
to verify the suppositions. The design of the study of PhD student includes: (1)
Choosing the study sample; (2) Collecting data; (3) Analyzing data.
a. Choosing sample
In order to collect representative data, PhD student studies two groups: BIDV
managers and professionals.
b. Collecting data
PhD student focuses on studying the subjects in the chosen samples from 2014
to 2018.
+ 1st period: Develop a questionnaire.
+ 2nd period: Consult professionals.
+ 3rd period: Giai đoạn 3: Design official questionnaire.
The results of BIDV’s and customer’s survey are summarized and used in
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chapter 2 with an aim to assess the current situation of the prevention and mitigation
of credit risk at BIDV and provide a basis for the suggestion of solutions of
prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV.
c. Processing and analyzing data
The data used in the thesis includes primary and secondary data.
After being fully collected, the data is imported into Excel, in which the
variablesare coded into parts and groups of the questionnaire. Then the data is
imported into SPSS. As a result, there are 32 data samples of the head office
professionals and 71 samples of the branches in the SPSS. The statistic analysis
results are shown in the following tables and in chapter 2 of the thesis.
Logistic regression analysis steps
As for the considerable amount of the input variables, the choosing of the
variablesthat represent each composition (T24/CIC/BCTC (from the Balance
sheet)/BCTC (from the Income statement)/financial statement ratio) is executed by
means of independent logistic regression for each composition and choosing of the
best-representative variablesbefore carrying out multiple-variable regression for each
model.
PhD student chooses SPSS 22.0 to analyze the mentioned data because of its
superior functions: convenience for qualitative and quantitative analysis of
descriptive statistics by means of qualitative questions (questionnaire), comparison
of the average values of the sample groups, reliability analysis of the questionnaire,
analysis of the discovery factors...Additionally, it can analyze samples at
considerable size, and its data input and coding mechanism are appropriate for the
aim of the study and compatible to other software including Excel. Plus, it produces
results of tables and graphs that are scientific and graphical. The presenting and
printing of the results are very convenient using SPSS 22.0.
2.3 ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT SITUATION OF THE
PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF CREDIT RISK AT BIDV
2.3.1 Achieved results
- Credit growth is as planned.
- The mechanism framework, credit prevention and mitigation policies system
is developed.
- The managerial department for credit risk is formed.
- The internal credit rating system is well-developed and properly adopted.
- The Basel II standards are implemented in the prevention and mitigation of
credit risk.
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2.3.2 Downsides
- Incomprehensive credit risk prevention and mitigation strategy.
- Incomprehensive credit risk prevention and mitigation model.
- Risky credit-granting procedure.
-Incompleted early-predicting credit risk system.
- Asynchronous credit risk measurement system.
2.3.3 Causes of the downsides
2.3.3.1 Subjective causes
- The prevention and mitigation of credit risk have not been priotized in banking
management.
- The authorization delagation documents are asynchronous.
- The credit officers lack of professional knowledge.
- Database, IT system, credit information system do not meet the requirements.
- Risk assessment tools are incompleted and qualitative.
2.3.3.2 Objective causes
- Customers.
- Banking and economic environment.
- Incomprehensive regulation and directive papers of the commercial bank.
CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 2
Based on the basic issues of prevention and mitigation of credit risk in chapter
1, PhD student assesses the current situation of credit risk management at BIDV
from 2014 to 2018. In order to correctly assess the credit risk management at BIDV,
PhD student combines the results of the questionnaire, professional consultant and
secondary data collection from the year 2014 to 2018 at BIDV on: credit risk
strategy, credit risk prevention and mitigation models and procedures. The
assessment results of chapter 2 are the basis for the solutions of chapter 3.
CHAPTER 3
SOLUTIONS FOR THE PREVENTION AND MITIGATION OF
CREDIT RISK AT BIDV
3.1 DIRECTION FOR CREDIT RISK PREVENTION AND
MITIGATION AT BIDV UNTIL THE YEAR 2030
The direction is based on developmental direction of business activity, credit
and the prevention and mitigation of credit risk at BIDV in order to reccommend
18
suitable solutions.
3.2 SOLUTIONS FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF CREDIT RISK
PREVENTION AND MITIGATION AT BIDV
3.2.1 Development and completion of the credit risk management strategy
3.2.1.1 General strategy
In order to mitigate credit risk at BIDV, the essential solution is to develop and
complete the credit risk management strategy. According to the requirements of
Basel II Committee, the organization structure of the commercial bank needs
changes to better manage credit risks. The banks need to appoint a department of
credit risk management made of professionals who have in-depth understanding of
various types of risk aiming to assess the bank’s risks comprehensively. Every
branch in the bank system has to develop a credit risk management strategy based on
performance analysis, assess risks related to lending as well as the bank’s risk-
bearing capacity.
3.2.1.2 Specific strategy
* Credit risk dispersion
In the credit growth strategy, the diversification of credit-granting jobs aims at
credit risk dispersion, avoiding the heavy concentration on a job to ultimately
mitigate possible risk. It means that the dispersion of credit risk will greatly lower the
loss if risks arise.
* Customer strategy development
Appropriate customer selection strategy is one of the necessary tools for credit
risk mitigation. The development of a customer strategy will assist BIDV in
classifying customers, selecting profitable customers with sound financial status,
possible business options, credibility and willingness to pay debts.
3.2.2 Completion of the credit risk prevention and mitigation
3.2.2.1 General principle
The bank must develop a risk management structure that is appropriate with the
size and characteristics of the business, but at the same time ensures the effectiveness
of supervision and credit management execution in accordance with international
practices.
3.2.2.2 Implementation of credit-approval concentration model
The selection of the system of credit-approval concentration model and credit
risk dispersion supervision on the whole system aims at improving the speed of
credit approval and ensuring the service quality, improving competitiveness,
ensuring risk control, competitiveness and independence of the following steps:
19
customer development, credit-granting inspection and credit appraisal.
3.2.2.3 Possible risk measurement models for BIDV
Reality shows that if only the qualitative model is implemented, credit risk will
not be correctly measured, the effect of capital and macro-variables could not be
calculated and the risk will be imprecisely predicted. Especially in special cases, the
level of risk will not be determined if the bank does not base on experiences.
Therefore, it is necessary to implement both qualitative and quantitative models.
The assessment and quatification of credit risk and the loss caused by it are not
simple. As a result, most commercial banks in Vietnam have not developed an
effective credit risk measurement model. In order to maintain its competitiveness and
sustainable development, BIDV needs to determine and study a suitable credit risk
measurement model. It is possible to study the following models: 6C-based quality
model; credit loss forecasting model; Logistic regression analysis for customer
rating.
3.2.3. Completion of the rules on the prevention and mitigation of credit
risk
In order to ensure the credit performance effectiveness, transparency, easy
responsibility delegation, the banks must inspect, standardize, develop rules and
procedures of credit risk prevention and mitigation, including:
-Rules on credit products, collaterals, customers, geographical locations,
economic jobs that are allowed to grant credits or abstained from doing so.
-. Procedures on credit appraisal, management and credit filing.
- Rules on decentralization of authority of credit appraisal, including the
authority to appraise credit in special circumstances.
-. Manuals for each method and form of credit-granting
- Credit lines and credit-granting limitations in accordance with legal
regulations and credit risk management strategy.
- Rules on the decentralization of authority of risk provision and the use of the
provision for credit risk according to legal regulations.
- Rules on the determination of credit-granting interest.
- Rules on the role and responsibility of each individual and department related
to credit granting and management.
-. Rules on doubtful debt management.
- Rules on the internal credit rating system.
- Especially, with the implementation of IT in bank and credit risk management,
the rules and procedures on credit activities that need inspection and adjusting in
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order to meet the requirements of the IT system, aiming at automatical information
update, analysis, assessment and presentation.
3.2.4 Improvement of credit risk appraisal quality
3.2.4.1 Improvement of the information collection and procession quality
Having precise and sufficient information about customers in time is
complicated and has an important role in improving lending service quality.
- Developing and completing the system of information collection and
procession on the economy, market and customer so that risk forecasting can be
made in time.
- It is essential to include direct interview, personal papers verification, media,
credit organization that provided services for the customers,... in customer appraisal
procedure as it assists the bank in the verification of working style, management
ability, honesty, personality of the customer.
- Credit officers are the ones who usually make contact with customers.
3.2.4.2 Improvement of credit risk identification
After identifying the risk, the managers continue with the next steps. This is one
of the most important content of the prevention and mitigation of credit risk. In order
to identify a risk, it is necessary to consider signs of credit risk, then carry out risk
analysis, assessment and realization of its nature, the impact factors and their level of
impact on the risks.
On the basis of credit risk signs, the credit risk management departments
assesses, comments on and presents the results to department that is directly
responsible for credit risk to solve the problem in time. Credit risk signs might
originate from the customers or the bank itself. This process is executed in the whole
procedure of credit granting to customers, from providing services, appraising and
approving loans, supervising to settling doubtful debts.
3.2.4.3 Improvement of customer evaluation quality
* Completion of the content and procedure of financial analysis
Nowadays BIDV has the regulation paper for credit-granting procedure for the
whole system and based on which, the appraisal departments of each branch can
develop an united appraisal procedure for credit appraisal.
* Requirements for the use of the internal credit-rating system
Despite being simple and having many flaws, this credit risk qualitative
measurement method partly assists risk managers in acquiring an overview on the
current risk level of the bank, suitable to most Vietnamese commercial banks’
current technology level. However, for the highest effectiveness level,
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