Relationship between sectoral exports and economic growth - A vector error correction modeling for Vietnamese fishery sector 1997-2008
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
55
RELATIONShIp BETwEEN SECTORAL EXpORTS ANd
ECONOmIC gROwTh - A vECTOR ERROR CORRECTION
mOdELINg FOR vIETNAmESE FIShERY SECTOR 1997 – 2008
By Nguyen Minh Duc1 and Nguyen Anh Tram2
Numerous literatures have documented growth of a country. The classical economic
the relationship between exports and theories by Adam Smith, David Ricardo,
economic growth of a nation but not so Torrens, James Mill and John Stuart Mill
many on the one between exports of an stated that trade promoted economic growth.
economic sector and national growth. This Evidence for a positive contribution of free
paper examines the latter relationship with trade to the productivity of nations has been
evidence from fishery exports of Vietnam widely discussed and is well documented
during 1997 to 2008. The contribution of in the economic literature (Corden 1972,
fishery sector in Vietnamese Gross Domestic Bhagwati, 1978; Krueger, 1978, Romer,
Products (GDP) may be mathematically 1986; Lucas, 1988; Levine and Renelt, 1992;
calculated with statistical figures. However, Edwards, 1998).
the effects of fishery exports on the economic
growth are yet to be thoroughly studied in
an econometric approach. An econometric
approach with stationary and co-integration
tests and vector error correction models used
in this study allows forecasting a persistence
of the effects of fishery exports on Vietnamese
GDP despite of different seasonal business.
For the long run estimation, a double
increase in national fishery exports revenue
would raise the GDP by 7%. This has a great
economic meaning in developing process of
Vietnamese economy. In reverse direction,
Vietnamese fishery exports would increase
by 5.2% with a 10% increase in its GDP.
Confirming the role of fishery exports in
national economic growth, it is necessary
for the sector to improve its competitive
capacity.
In international trade, there were also
some industries enjoying an international
comparative advantage, recently. These
sectors could produce world class
commodities for modest export sectors.
The sectors communicated and traded
with buyers in other countries. Markets are
speedily globalized. The modern theory of
trade has been designed and proponed by
Paul Krugman, who suggested that trade
trends in countries are developing key
industries for export in order to get economic
gain or growth. The key industries produced
sectoral exports of the countries.
Sectoral exporting is an economic
development strategy of many countries.
Tourism service exports in Greece are
an example (Thompson and Thompson,
2010). With its thousands-year culture and
birthplace of philosophy, famous tourist
hotspots as its capital Athens, the northern
Chalkidiki peninsula, the Ionian island of
Corfu and the island resorts of Myconos,
Santorini, Paros and Crete, Greece is one of
the best destinations for global tourists and
tourism was found to be a long run factor
to economic of the country (Dritsakis,
2004). The Philippines is the paradigmatic
Keywords: sectoral export, growth,
trade, fishery, vector error correction
model
I. Introduction
The relationship between economic
growth and international trade was argued
by many economists when trade comes into
being. Trade indeed promotes economic
1
Correspondent author; Chair, Department of Fisheries Management and Development, Nong Lam University, Thuduc,
Hochiminh City, Vietnam. Email: [email protected], nguyenminhd[email protected]
M.Sc. Graduate, Vietnam-Netherland Master Program in Development Economics, HCMC University of Economics,
Hochiminh City, Vietnam.
2
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
56
example of a state that deliberately on effects such as migrant workers sending
constructed policy for its exports of labor remittances to their dependents (Kurien,
abroad. Yang (2004) has demonstrated that 2005). Contributing approximate 10% of
Philippine families with migrant members whole national export revenues, fishery
abroad fared considerably better than exports make an ongoing contribution to
family member without migrants. The economic growth, poverty alleviation and
Philippines have succeeded in developing people well-being as well (Duc, 2008,
a large scale labor export regime that 2009a). Although the Vietnamese fishery
provides significant level of remittances sector contributes to national GDP typically
to the Philippine economy. Remittances varied by 2.5–4.0 percent, it also generates
from abroad labor are seen as a particularly a wide range of tax revenues, contributing
stable source of its finance (Ratha, 2003; to the national budget. Moreover, the major
Kapur, 2004) so that the Philippines try to share of fishery exports has strong backward
keep labor exports as more as possible. For linkages with the other sectors both in terms
its important role in an economic growth of of primary and value added commodities.
developing countries, sectoral exports are However there are lack of empirical studies
also considered one of important economic on a clear relationship between Vietnamese
development strategy in Vietnam.
fishery exports and its economic growth
although Vietnamese government has tried
in practice to promote fishery export growth
to boost up its economy.
Since joining into ASEAN in 1985,
Vietnam has boosted and diversified its
trade significantly, reflecting a globalization
process of the Vietnamese economy. Its
This study examines causality
trade openness (aka exports revenue plus relationship between the fishery export
imports expenditure and then divided by and economic growth based on a time
GDP) increased from 84.5 percent in 1999 series analysis with quarterly data from
to about 170 percent in 2009, indicating a 1997 to 2008 and hence explores the role
rapidly increasing integration of the country of fishery exports in Vietnamese economy.
into global economy. Although crude oil The national policy makers may use results
still stands on the first position in export in this study when making policies and
revenues, products from agricultural and strategies for economic development.
aquatic products are playing increasingly The findings are also able to contribute to
critical role in the structure of Vietnam’s literature on relationship between sectoral
exports (Duc and Hong, 2009).
exports and economic growth.
Fishery exports, according to
Cunningham (2000), Schmidt (2003),
and FAO (2007), can act as an engine of
growth for developing countries endowed
with large fish resources. In addition,
fishery exports revenue can contribute to
economic growth in developing countries
by providing an important source of cash
revenue (Valdimarsson, 2003, Ahmed,
2003, and Bostock et al., 2004). Fishery
exports not only contribute indirectly
to economic development through new
employment creation but also via increased
incomes from the sector and secondary flow
II. methodology
Model specifications
To investigate the association between
the growth of exports and economic
performance, some theoretical models were
considered. The first is the neo-classical
growth model
Y = f ( K, L )
(1)
whereYis aggregate real output, K and
L represent capital and labor, respectively.
The second theoretical base is from
the framework suggested by Feder (1982)
in which the economy consists of export
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
57
and non-export production. However, (Cunningham, 2000, Schmidt, 2003, FAO,
output in the export production generates 2007), this study follows a conceptual model
an externality effect in the non-export based on an augmented Cobb–Douglas
sector, such as efficient management production function as followings
and competitive environment, improved
production techniques, better quality
management and workers, and continuous
flow of imported inputs. Feder’s model of
economic growth can be shown as:
Yt = f (Lt, Xt, EXRt)
(5)
whereY,L,EXRarerealgrossdomestic
product, labor force, and real exchange rate,
respectively. Variable X represents fishery
exports revenue in an effort to explore its
effect on national economic growth.
N = f ( KN, LN, X ),
X = g ( KX, LX ),
(2)
(3)
Because tra/basa catfish and shrimp
are the most important products for
Vietnamese fishery export and demand for
their exports is seasonal (Kinnucan and
Miao, 1999), dummy variables for quarters
in a year are added in the model (5) with
the first quarter is used as base variable.
The dummy variable for yearly quarters,
QDi, gets value of ‘1’ if the value is of
quarter (i), otherwise it gets value of ‘0’.
The Bilateral Trade Agreement signed in
2001 between the US and Vietnam as well
as the US antidumping measures against to
Vietnamese fishery products (such as frozen
catfish and shrimp) since 2003 may have
an effect on Vietnamese fishery exports.
Two binary dummy variables, BTA and AD,
therefore were employed into econometric
where N- domestic non-export production
X - domestic export production
KN, KX = capital stocks, respective for
non-export and export production
LN, LX = labor forces, respective for
non-export and export production
f, g are conventional production
functions
Several authors have tested the effect
of exports on the economic growth in the
following production function, which is
referred to as the Balassa approach (1978,
cited by Sheehey, 1990)
ΔY = α0 + α1ΔK + α2ΔL + α3ΔX + e
(4)
where Y is the real GDP, K is the
real capital stock, L is the labor force, models to isolate the possible effects of the
trade policies.
and X is merchandise real exports. The
symbol ∆ indicates annual percentage rates
of growth.
Subsequently,themodel(5)ismodified
to become an empirical model:
Yt = f (Lt, Xt, EXRt, QD2t, QD3t, QD4t, BTAt, ADt)
(6)
This model is based on a hypothesis
that marginal productivities are higher in
export production due to the scale effects
and externalities associated with export
production. Given the labor force and
capital stock, expansion of the export sector
will raise GDP growth (Ngoc et al., 2003).
In addition, not only has the economic
literature adopted a supply-side approach as
the basic framework to test empirically the
relationship between export and growth, but
also nearly all the studies mentioned have
specified a linear relation.
data description
The data for this study are obtained
quarterly from the first quarter of 1997 to
the last quarter of 2008 including GDP,
fishery exports revenue, consumer price
index, labor force of Vietnam, the exchange
rate VN dong against to US dollar, and the
US consumer price index.
The quarterly gross domestic products
of Vietnam, Yt, is the real GDP with the
base year of 1994. The value of GDP is
billion VND. The three month summation
Consequently, as fishery exports
can act as an engine of economic growth
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
58
of fishery exports value is considered as the quarter. The quarterly data of CPI, CPI-VNt,
value of fishery exports in respective quarter and US Consumer Price Index, CPI_USt,
in USD, Xt. Labor variable, Lt, gets quarterly is the average value in three months of a
data of Vietnam labor force, collected from quarter, collected from GSO and the US
data of GSO (2009). Getting daily data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, respectively.
data of exchange rate of VND against USD, described in Table 1.
EXRt, is average value of three months of a
Table 1
descriptive statistical spreadsheet of all variables
Fishery
exports
revenue
GDP
(billion
VND)
Labor
(million
persons)
Exchange
rate
(VND/USD)
CPI - VN
CPI - US
(million USD)
Mean
84996.60
80340.00
144873.00
47270.00
24409.37
40.08
40.08
47.40
34.52
3.80
547
533
143
137
306
6.88E-05
6.73E-05
8.86E-05
6.03E-05
6.49E-06
106.79
107.00
126.00
96.00
6.03
184.30
182.10
219.30
159.57
17.30
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
For accuracy in modeling, values of Fuller and Augmented Dickey-Fuller
variables of the model would be adjusted. tests. Johansen Test was used to test co-
First, real values of GDP with the base integration between the datasets.
year of 1994 were divided by amount of
III. Results And discussion
labor force to get GDP per capita values
Results of unit root tests for variables
for the variable of YCAP. Second, the real
YCAP, REXR, XCAP show that these
exchange rate variable, REXR, gets data
variables are trend stationary time series in
from the nominal exchange rate divided by
their logarithm. The datasets of YCAP and
the ratio between Vietnamese CPI (CPI-
XCAP are suspected to be cointegrated.
VN) and the United States CPI (CPI-US)
However, Johansen test indicates a
when the United States CPI is collected
cointegration between the two datasets
of lnYCAP and lnXCAP, allowing for an
from website of the US Department
of Labor. Data for fishery exports was
application of Error Correction Modeling
method to reconcile the short-run behavior of
these variables with their long-run behavior.
In the method, Vector Error Correction
estimation is conducted to capture a possible
endogeneity between lnYCAP and lnXCAP
datasets. The estimation results are presented
in Table 2.
collected from Fistenet (2009), divided
by Vietnamese CPI to get their real
values before being divided by amount
of Vietnamese labor to obtain values for
the variable of XCAP – fishery exports per
capita. For stationary test, unit root tests
for all series of variables YCAP, REXR,
XCAP were implemented with Dickey-
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
59
Table 2
vector Error Correction Estimates
Cointegrating Eq:
lnYCAP(-1)
CointEq1
1.000000
-0.353490
[-3.47723]
-4.417842
dlnYCAP
-0.186955
[-2.58688]
0.152659
[ 0.99666]
-0.084653
[-3.38643]
-0.918004
[-1.40072]
-0.063581
[-0.87808]
-0.017598
[-1.36845]
0.011578
[ 1.15793]
0.649421
[ 8.87885]
0.268454
[ 11.3991]
0.521871
[ 14.7913]
0.993699
0.992124
lnXCAP(-1)
C
Error Correction:
CointEq1
dlnXCAP
0.524847
[ 1.13754]
0.731477
[ 0.74804]
-0.443494
[-2.77897]
1.353921
[ 0.32359]
0.205208
[ 0.44391]
0.003412
[ 0.04156]
-0.032475
[-0.50871]
0.996612
[ 2.13429]
0.564955
[ 3.75762]
0.641232
[ 2.84679]
0.812120
0.765150
dlnYCAP(-1)
dlnXCAP(-1)
Constant
lnREXR
BTA
AD
QD2
QD3
QD4
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Notes: t-statistics in square brackets
Effects of fishery exports on
Vietnamese GDP
not much surplus in fishery production to
export. Values of fishery exports in second
quarters are higher than that in first quarters
because all production activities in Vietnam
start in normal operation after holiday. The
figures are improved well in third and fourth
quarters in efforts to achieve annual export
targets of fisheries enterprises.
The regression estimated that, in
short-run, fishery exports affect much on
GDP (absolute value of t-stat is 3.386) but
the sign of this relationship is minus. Values
of both GDP and fishery exports in all three
quarters 2, 3 and 4 increase relative to that
in quarter 1 because annual quarter 1 is the
holiday season of Vietnamese people. Most
of the people are likely to relax and get fun
after one working hard year, leading to an
decease in the productivity in Vietnamese
economy and a reduction in GDP values.
Further, in the first quarter of each year, most
of Vietnamese fishery outputs are prioritized
to serve domestic market, thus, there is
Real exchange rate and the bilateral
trade agreement between Vietnam and the
US seem to decrease Vietnamese GDP and
increase fishery exports but these effects are
not statistically significant. The results are
unlikely to favor the recent argument that
a devaluation of Vietnam dong against to
US dollar would increase exports and in its
turn, increase GDP. The US anti-dumping
60
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
measures since 2003 against to fishery in the developing process of Vietnamese
imports from Vietnam seem to depress economy. The estimation results also
Vietnamese fishery exports but the effects confirm the role of sectoral exports in
have not enough significance to derive an national economic growth, consistent with
economic implication.
previous findings by Awokuse (2003), Anh
(2008), Dritsakis (2004), and Thompson and
Thompson (2010). In further implication,
the results have also confirmed the
contribution of exports to economic growth
as documented in lots of literature. Vohra
(2001), for instance, finds exports have a
positive impact on economic growth when a
countryachievessomelevelofdevelopment,
examining India, Pakistan, the Philippines,
Malaysia, and Thailand from 1973 to 1993.
With the Vector Error Correction
estimation,theempiricalmodelfordlnYCAP
is estimated as following
dlnYCAPt = - 0.19*( lnYCAP(t-1) - 0.35*lnXCAP(t-1)
- 4.42) + 0.15*dlnYCAP(t-1) - 0.08*dlnXCAP(t-1) -
0.92 + 0.65*QD2 + 0.27*QD3 + 0.52*QD4 + e
(1)
Expanding the differences, the long
run equation for lnYCAP is derived as:
lnYCAPt = 0.96*lnYCAP(t-1) – 0.15*lnYCAP(t-2) - In another study, Lee and Pan (2000) provide
0.01*lnXCAP(t-1) + 0.08*lnXCAP(t-2) - 0.08 + evidence of Granger causal relations from
0.65*QD2 + 0.27*QD3 + 0.52*QD4 + e
exports to GDP in Hong Kong, Indonesia,
South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand.
(2)
The result in Equation 2 estimates
an increase in GDP of Vietnam during all
three quarters 2, 3, and 4 relative to the first
quarter annually. The BTAbetween Vietnam
and the USA seems not to give a significant
effect (P>0.05) on the growth of Vietnam as
expected (Table 2).
Effects of GDP on Vietnamese fishery
exports
In similar derivation, the empirical
estimation for the equation of Vietnamese
fishery exports is expressed as follows:
dlnXCAP = 0.52*( lnYCAP(-1) - 0.35*lnXCAP(-1)
4.42) + 0.73*dlnYCAP(-1) - 0.44*dlnXCAP(-1)
-
Although fishery exports depress
Vietnamese GDP in its first lag, it is
estimated to increase the GDP in its second
lag with larger effect. The negative effect in
short-run of fishery exports on Vietnamese
GDP may be explained by the increasing
contribution of aquaculture production on
fishery exports revenue but the farming
sectorisincreasinglydependingonimported
inputs such as feed ingredients, medicals and
chemicals (Thanh, 2011). In long run, with
summation of the two lags, fishery exports
are likely to increase the GDP. For the long
run estimation, a conclusion can be pointed
out that Vietnamese GDP will increase 0.7%
with a 10% c.p. increase in its fishery exports
revenues. In other words, if other variables
did not vary or their effects on Vietnamese
GDP were not isolated, as value of fishery
+
1.35 + 0.99*QD2 + 0.56*QD3 + 0.64*QD4 + e
(3)
The above equation is expanded and
calculated as below:
LNXCAP = 0.38*lnXCAP(-1) + 0.44*lnXCAP(-2)
+ 1.25*lnYCAP(-1) – 0.73*lnYCAP(-2) + 1.35 +
0.99*QD2 + 0.56*QD3 + 0.64*QD4 + e
(4)
The long run estimation derived in
Equation 4 confirms an increase in fishery
exports of Vietnam in all three yearly
quarters 2, 3, and 4 relative to the first
quarter. Vietnamese GDP was likely to raise
fishery exports in its first lag. Although
fishery exports were estimated to be lowered
by GDP in second lag, with a summation
for two-lag effects, the GDP would increase
export revenue doubles, Vietnamese GDP the fishery exports in long run. Vietnamese
would increase by 7%, it is so meaningful. fishery exports would increase by 5.2% with
a 10% increase in its GDP.
This finding has a great economic meaning
Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of science- No. 1(1) 2011
61
The estimated result is likely to be
Vietnam became a WTO’s member
consistent with the findings of Siddique since 2007 and it would remove or reduce
and Selvanathan (2002) mentioning about import tariff imposed on foreign aquatic
a positive effect of an economic growth products and also on aquaculture inputs
on exports in Thailand during 1953-1993 leading to a forecasted increase in fishery
through cointegration and Granger causality import expenditure. Further analyses which
tests for exports, imports, and economic include the expenditure, therefore, should
growth. The US antidumping measures be implemented to confirm the findings of
against to Vietnamese frozen catfish fillets this study.
and shrimp was estimated not to give a
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